STORM FORECAST
VALID Sat 11 Feb 06:00 - Sun 12 Feb 06:00 2006 (UTC)
ISSUED: 10 Feb 19:05 (UTC)
FORECASTER: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Large-scale upper low over E Europe/W Russia ... and W European upper ridge will remain in place during the period ... maintaining unseasonably cold/stable conditions across most of Europe. Upstream ... de-amplifying Atlantic trough will graze W Europe late in the period. At low levels ... main frontal boundary is forecast to stretch from the E Black Sea across Greece into the SW Mediterranean by Saturday 12Z. Upper low SW of the Iberian coast is maintaining weak WAA regime across Portugal and Spain.

DISCUSSION

...south-central Iberian Peninsula...
Soundings hint at weak elevated instability over the Iberian Peninsula ... and it seems that isolated TSTMS may again form in the late afternoon/evening hours as DCVA related ascent overspreads the region. Timing of the UVV regime is rather bad though ... also ... instability should be quite limited. Deep and low-level shear is expected to be quite weal as well ... and severe threat seems to be negligible.

...central and eastern Mediterranean...
Weak and shallow CAPE will likely persist across parts of the central and eastern Mediterranean Sea. Models seem to converge towards the S Ionian and SE Aegean Sea for deepest convective mixing ... though allover noisy nature of the model CAPE fields suggest that signals are rather weak. Will thus not introduce a TSTM area ... though an isolated CG or two may well occur with the shallow Mediterranean convection.

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